comment:

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This script looks at the impact of climate change on malaria. The
model is taken from Pim Martens' "Health & Adaptation With Climate Change".
The parameters are for P. Falciparum.
:comment

base year 2000
scenario years 2005 to  2035 by 5

dim scenario 'Adaptation Without Climate Change' 'Climate Change Without Adaptation' \
			'Adaptation With Climate Change'

var Temp{scenario}, BiteFrequency{scenario}, IncubPeriod{scenario}, SurvProb{scenario}
ratio RecoveryRate{scenario}, MosqPerPerson{scenario}

number TempRate = <1.5> #SPINNER -group "Climatic Changes" -range {-3.0 3.0} -inc 0.1 -width 3 -l_text "Temp. Change (deg. C/half-century)" -l_width 27 -l_font "Arial 10"
var ScenTempRate{scenario}
ScenTempRate = TempRate
ScenTempRate{scenario='Adaptation Without Climate Change'} = 0
:: 25 + (y - y.0) * ScenTempRate/50 -> Temp

:: 111/(Temp - 16) -> IncubPeriod
:: 0.4 * (Temp - 9.9)/36.5 -> BiteFrequency

:: exp(-1/(-4.4 + 1.31 * Temp - 0.03 * Temp^2)) -> SurvProb

number RRincr = <10>/100 #SLIDER -group "Malaria Adaptation Measures" -range {-30 30} -inc 1 -length 125 -l_text "Recovery Rate (% improvement)" -l_width 27 -l_font "Arial 10"
number MosqRed = <20>/100 #SLIDER -group "Malaria Adaptation Measures" -range {0 100} -inc 5 -length 125 -l_text "Mosquito Pop. (% reduction)" -l_width 27 -l_font "Arial 10"

RecoveryRate = index[(1+RRincr)^(1/(y.count - 1))]
MosqPerPerson = index[(1-MosqRed)^(1/(y.count - 1))]
ditto scenario='Climate Change Without Adaptation':
RecoveryRate{''} = index[1.0]
MosqPerPerson{''} = index[1.0]

var EpidPotential{scenario}
EpidPotential.0 = 100
var ReproductiveRate{scenario}
ReproductiveRate = <0.9>

:: BiteFrequency^2 * SurvProb ^ IncubPeriod/(-ln(SurvProb)) >>  \
		1/RecoveryRate -> EpidPotential >> MosqPerPerson -> ReproductiveRate

report EpidPotential as "Epidemic Potential (index)"
report ReproductiveRate as "Reproductive Rate (will spread if > 1.0)"